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Posted:  4/5/2012 8:53 AM #31000
CTD Blogger

Joined: 7/14/2009
Posts: 10828
Last Post: 8/20/2014
Subject: Threat Assessment – What are the most likely threats that you will face?
( of truly being prepared for anything, means knowing exactly what threats you’re facing and then analyzing how those threats will effect you in the future. By performing a  realistic threat assessment, you can better idea of what threats you are facing and learn how to prepare for those threats in the future. The outcome or objective of a threat assessment is to maximize the protection of yourself, your family and your property. Performing one will help you improve your ability to handle threats, manage threatening situations, and protect the people you love people from harm.

There are three primary objectives when performing a threat assessment – Identify, Assess, and Manage.


The first step in analyzing your overall preparedness level, is to identify the most likely threats that you will face.

What are the most likely threats that you will face? Who/What are the threats and what are your vulnerabilities?

  • Natural disasters: What are the most likely disasters that you will face based on your geographical location? (Hurricanes, Floods, Earthquakes, etc..)
  • SHTF scenarios: What do you believe are the greatest threats to you livelihood? (economic collapse, political instability –  chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats –  riots, wars, etc…)
  • Personal Threats – Economic Problems, Job Loss, Home Invasions, Debt, etc..
  • Security: What are the largest security risks that you face in your area? (Gangs, Criminal Activity, issues effecting urban areas, etc…)
  • What are the immediate dangers in your location? Is there anything that stands out about your neighborhood? Are there obstacles or dangers that are specific to your geographical location that could leave you vulnerable? (terrorist threats, chemical and/or biological threats, threats to critical infrastructure, criminal activity, inadequate access to supply routes or escape routes during a disaster, etc…)


The next step is to assess how these dangers will effect you and then figure out what needs to be protected?

  • How will each of the above listed threats effect you, your family, your property and your survival plans?
  • How will each situation effect your overall preparedness efforts?
  • Are there any areas in your plans, security or overall preparedness efforts that need to be addressed?
  • What steps do you need to take to protect yourself, your family and your property?


The final step is to take immediate protective actions that will help prevent or minimize your exposure to these potential threats.

  • What can be done to minimize your risk?
  • Develop appropriate emergency response plans and threat reduction strategies for each situation.
  • Are you prepared to Bug Out if the situation calls for that action?
  • IntelligenceThose that are truly prepared will seek information from multiple sources. Make sure you have a good way to gather information before and after a disaster hits. (BEFORE: Survival Websites, Books, Radio etc… AFTER: Personal Networks, Ham & Shortwave Radio, etc…)

Posted:  4/8/2012 6:39 PM #31030
Texan Raven

Joined: 5/22/2007
Posts: 411
Last Post: 1/9/2013
When we had to bug out, by police order, during the wildfires in our development in September, we realized there was only two ways in and two ways out. The main access road is controlled by a stop light. AT the light, you can either turn right or left. Needless to say, several thousand people trying to bug out was not fun. The other road also ends at the same street controlled by the light. There is no light at the other road. Traffic was backed up for MILES trying to get out. On the main road, there were actually people stopping, in both lanes, to get out of their cars and take pictures of the fires. I asked one lady if she wanted to take pictures of the fires from inside the fires. All I got was a thousand-yard stare from her. So for me, to get out of where we live, escape routes are definitely a problem. The only solution I see is to sell and move to a more viable area. That is in the process of happening.

Posted:  4/9/2012 8:43 AM #31031

Joined: 6/28/2005
Posts: 1337
Last Post: 1/28/2015


This is a really good point. I don’t have much of an escape route, either. I live right off a major highway that will be backed up for miles.

This is a good reminder for us all to plot out all the alternatives routes outta town…

CTD Forum Moderator

Posted:  4/10/2012 12:52 PM #31056

Joined: 1/19/2012
Posts: 115
Last Post: 12/18/2012
In the military we call this the OODA Loop. Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. REPEAT (hence the loop part). See the risk, focus your energy on that risk, decide what you are going to do to minimizes the risk, then do it, continue to monitor the risk for changes. Never, EVER sit back and think that you have eliminated a risk. You can't eliminate risk, you can only minimize it. Always be looking towards the next problem and prepare for it. When you think you have gotten all the risks planned for, reevaluate the risk, see if it has changed due to your action, then change your tactic for dealing with it. Here is a good site that explains it better.

Posted:  5/4/2012 7:15 PM #31526

Joined: 5/2/2012
Posts: 2063
Last Post: 9/30/2014
Relax folks. To properly prepare for all contingencies, You'd have to kidnap and hold a surgeon, pharmacist, priest, shrink, general contractor, farmer, and a bevy of hot teenage hookers. When the SHTF, it really won't matter-any good soldier will tell you no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. Aside from laying in a good supply of food, water, medicine and ammo, there's really nothing you can do. Bug-out is a fantasy and insane on its face. No matter where you go, you're toast when the pitchforks-and-torches crowd shows up. Just watch reruns of "The Omega Man," and "No Blade Of Grass."
I live in a gated, fully fenced retirement community. We're an island of 1950s sanity in a city and world gone mad. Nobody can remember the last time a crime was ever committed within our park, and people are comfortable leaving cars and homes unlocked. It would take me half an hour to find my house keys. They're somewhere in this desk. I think. If the SHTF, I'm sure we'd all happily mobilize our little community of around 400 families to guard and secure our little refuge until things either settle down and order is restored, or civilization is a total loss and then who cares anyway. I have no desire to survive the collapse of my country just to relive the Dark Ages. 
If you project even a hint of preparedness, you might as well paint large targets on yourself and family for the convenience of the great unwashed that is unprepared. Unless your plans include being part of a large group of similarly-situated people with pooled resources and a common interest in riding out the crisis, you might as well not plan at all. There's safety in numbers, not in going it alone.

Posted:  5/7/2012 8:33 AM #31545

Joined: 6/28/2005
Posts: 1337
Last Post: 1/28/2015
horselips: "I live in a gated, fully fenced retirement community. We're an island of 1950s sanity in a city and world gone mad. Nobody can remember the last time a crime was ever committed within our park, and people are comfortable leaving cars and homes unlocked. It would take me half an hour to find my house keys."
Do you think it is possible to have become too relaxed? Sounds like a wonderful community... but not at all realistic.
CTD Forum Moderator

Posted:  5/7/2012 4:41 PM #31565

Joined: 5/2/2012
Posts: 2063
Last Post: 9/30/2014
Hot_Lips_Banana: Too relaxed? Unrealistic? I dunno. Been livin' here for 5 years now. Not a hint of trouble. Because it's a retirement community the only vehicles we ever see with lights and sirens are ambulances and EMT fire trucks. For the convenience of these first responders most residents leave a door unlocked so help can get to them without having to break in. Ya know - "I've fallen and ..."
Anyway, just for the record, I did try to find my housekeys. Got 'em. Only took ten minutes. I rock.

Posted:  6/19/2012 2:45 PM #32237

Joined: 5/29/2010
Posts: 5
Last Post: 6/19/2012
I am located in the PRC (Peoples Republic of California) in the greater Los Angeles area.  I foresee a variety of things that will develop into SHTF that eventually could become TEOTWAWKI.  Here is my scenario:
  1. A major disaster such as hurricane has hit in the southeast or in Texas.  FEMA attempts to help those in need.
  2. Major wildfires are burning in the country.  (they are at this very minute!)  FEMA attempts to help those in need.
  3. Inflation is creeping upward.  Those on welfare are having a more difficult time.
  4. A major earthquake hits the Southern California area.  Major roads into the Los Angeles area are severely damaged, most allow no ingress or egress.  FEMA attempts to help those in need except it has no resources left.
  5. Within hours the local stores are out of food and other supplies.
  6. Those who were already living a bare daily existence begin to band together to "take from the rich."
  7. The local law enforcement agencies are impotent to stop the rioting and looting, home invasions.  Many LEOs are not even able to report to their duty stations.
  8. SHTF has begun

Posted:  11/28/2012 11:30 PM #35343

Joined: 11/28/2012
Posts: 5
Last Post: 12/1/2012
The biggest threats we see out here in rural KY tend to be bad weather.
In our case we have a few weeks of food stored in the basement and always keep the tanks full on the motorhome to prepare for them.
The only other thing, that I have seen, is an increase of home invasions since my area built up the past three years. And for that, a 12ga pump stops idiots in their tracks.

Posted:  11/29/2012 3:42 PM #35356

Joined: 2/9/2006
Posts: 336
Last Post: 8/18/2014
Here's what I see as my biggest threats to face:
1) Mother Nature - you an't gonna win against her
2) Government (local/county/state/federal) - 'nuff said
3) Stupidity - of others and my own (this covers a lot of ground!)
4) Civil collapse - becomes dog-eat-dog and you're wearing Milkbone underwear
5) Disease/contamination - just being real, folks!
6) Starvation - ditto!
7) Roaming packs - the true zombie apocalyps; kill or be killed
While I don't really think it will ever get past #3, it's better safe than sorry!
"I'd love to spit some Beech-Nut in that dude's eyes and shoot 'em with my ol' .45, cuz a country boy can survive!" Hank Williams, Jr.

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